Upcoming Emerging Market Elections


The geopolitical stage is typically divided into two camps: the Developed Markets (such as USA, the EU, Japan, England) and the Emerging Markets (such as China, Russia, Brazil, India, Turkey). Developed Markets are countries that have stable financial markets and political systems. Their economies are powerful but have developed to the point where they can now only grow at a slow and steady pace. On the other hand, Emerging Markets are the new players on the global stage. Their economies have grown rapidly over the past several years and they appear to have promising futures. However, their financial systems still need improvement and their political systems are still unstable. If the two groups could be visualized as Hollywood actors, the Developed Markets would be Liam Neeson.

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No matter what movie it is, you know for a fact that if Liam Neeson is in it, he is going to dominate that role and he is going to be a total badass as he trains Batman, saves his daughter, releases the Kraken, etc. Much like Liam Neeson, Developed Markets shape the context of the globe and have established themselves as the leaders of the world. On the other hand, Emerging Markets are James Franco.

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You can tell James has a lot of potential. He’s had some great movies such as 127 Hours, the Spiderman series and Pineapple Express. But let’s be honest, he’s been in some lousy movies too. Have you seen Your Highness? No you haven’t; and neither has anyone else. So you know Franco is a great actor but you can’t tell if his next movie is going to break box office records or totally fall flat and bomb. Similar to Franco, Emerging Markets have potential and may even become one of the world’s leading nations in the future. However, they are unstable and have their internal problems, much like Franco’s problem to keep his eyes fully open.

After the financial crisis of 2008, Developed Markets suffered greatly. Their economies were in shambles. These nations responded by lowering interest rates to stimulate demand. Thus, investors moved their money to Emerging Markets to seek higher returns on higher interest rates. After 2009, Emerging Market economies skyrocketed. From 2010 to the end of 2011, most Emerging Market economies grew somewhere between 6-11%. For example, in 2011, the Chinese economy grew by 9.2% and the Turkish economy grew by 8.5%. Following these developments, everyone believed that the time of Emerging Markets had come and that they would lead the world out from pits of the financial crisis.

However, in 2013, as central banks around the world such as the FED started talking of taking their foot of the pedal and slowing their support of their economies, interest rates rose in the developed world. 2013 was also the year when political upheaval broke out in certain Emerging Market countries, the US economy continued to recover at a steady pace and the EU saw the worst of its crisis pass. All of these factors caused investors to put their money back into the Developed Markets. As the cheap money was pulled away from Emerging Markets, their economies slowed down and their currencies lost value against Developed Market currencies.

In case you don’t believe me, here is a finance professor from George Washington University discussing how Emerging Markets fared in 2013.

Now in 2014, many Emerging Markets will go to the polls and determine their leaders in elections. These elections will shape the political sphere in those nations for the next several years and will definitely effect not only their national economies but ultimately the global economy. So, along with a graphic from the Wall Street Journal, here is a breakdown of upcoming Emerging Market elections in 2014.

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Brazil

Brazil’s economy is highly dependent on commodity exports. Thus, a fall in commodity prices, excessive government spending and a social upheaval against the government in the summer all proved troublesome for the Brazilian economy. The general election in October will decide if President Dilma retains her position or replaced by the opposition.

South Africa

In South Africa, the African National Congress party has won every election after the apartheid era. But they are now being challenged by the Democratic Alliance which won 16% of the votes in the 2009 elections and has grown in popularity ever since. Come election time in April, the ANC’s hegemony over South African politics may come to an end.

Turkey

Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AK Party have dominated every local and national election since they first came to office in 2002. During their term in power, they have further liberalized and grown the Turkish economy and have also increased Turkey’s influence on the global stage. However, resentment against Erdogan’s authoritarian tendencies and his party’s encroachment on personal freedoms exploded this year during the nationwide Gezi Park protests. Furthermore, a recent corruption scandal charged against several AK ministers have led to their resignation and has made the AK Party lose even more of its influence. The AK Party is still highly popular throughout Turkey, but it will be interesting to see the effect of recent events on the local elections in March.

India

The Indian economy currently faces stagflation as it is stuck in a state of high inflation and below average growth. Incumbent president Manmohan Singh has stated that even if his United Progressive Alliance party wins, he will not be president for a third term. Investors are hoping for a victory by pro-reformist Bharatiya Janata Party. Only time will tell the outcome of the general elections in May.

Indonesia

In July, whoever wins the Indonesian general election to replace outgoing two-term president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will have a full plate. Growth has slowed, politically popular fuel subsidies are draining the treasury and corruption remains rife.

All of these countries require the implementation of unpopular but important reforms to aid their economies and remedy social issues. However, because of upcoming elections, ruling parties are unfortunately likely to delay these reforms till after the elections are over.

“Emerging markets are hugely important.”
-James Dyson

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